With TikTok teetering on the brink of a likely ban in the United States, a sense of impending loss has settled over its vast user base. The app, a hub of creativity and connection for millions, is facing a forced farewell, sending users scrambling for alternatives. The situation intensified following a report from The Information, suggesting that TikTok will cease operations for US users as early as Sunday, should it fail to win its Supreme Court challenge or secure an American owner. This has catapulted the search for a suitable replacement into overdrive, with users now dubbing themselves "TikTok refugees."

Prior to the report, there was a glimmer of hope that while TikTok might vanish from US app stores, existing users could continue to access the app on their devices, at least temporarily. However, the reality of a complete shutdown has prompted a flurry of activity on app stores, as users seek out new platforms to call home.

Interestingly, the apps experiencing a surge in popularity this week aren't the obvious TikTok rivals like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat Spotlight, or X. Instead, a new crop of apps has emerged, eager to welcome the displaced TikTok community. Apps such as RedNote (also known as Xiaohongshu), Lemon8, Clapper, Flip, and Fanbase are now vying for attention, each offering a unique spin on the short-form video format that has made TikTok a global phenomenon.

The competition to become the new home for TikTok users is a stark reminder that despite years of effort by mainstream tech platforms to replicate TikTok's popular features, users still feel that no true replacement exists. Creator Mike Gottschalk encapsulated this sentiment in a TikTok video, stating, "A just government for the people, by the people does not force its people to use Instagram Reels. Instagram is stealing my data in the exact same way TikTok is. We can all pretend that there’s going to be a new app that rides in as a knight in shining armor and replaces TikTok, but I think we all know that it’s just going to be Reels. And that is how empires crumble."

Leading the charts on Apple's and Google's app stores this week is RedNote, or Xiaohongshu, a China-based app reminiscent of Instagram. Popular for sharing tips on travel, makeup, and fashion, it has attracted many American users this week, seemingly out of defiance against the US government's ban over national security concerns related to TikTok's China-based parent company. Users have expressed a willingness to migrate to another Chinese app, with one user, @Thiqydusty, declaring, "I surrender all my data to China. Here you go, China, in exchange for keeping my TikTok, you can have all my information."

The influx of new users to RedNote, previously confined mainly to the Chinese-speaking world, has led to some amusing moments of cultural exchange. Users have been offering Mandarin lessons, sharing information about Chinese and English internet slang, and calling for the app to implement automatic subtitles in both languages. Language learning app Duolingo reported a 216% spike in new Mandarin users compared to this time last year, potentially due to Americans joining RedNote, which features lots of content in Mandarin. "Learning Mandarin out of spite? You’re not alone," Duolingo quipped in a post on X.

Lemon8, a Pinterest-like app from TikTok parent company ByteDance, has also gained newfound popularity this week. The company first began pushing the app to American users in early 2023, when TikTok CEO Shou Chew was hauled before Congress to testify about the app’s data protection practices. However, both RedNote and Lemon8 could ultimately be subject to a law that prohibits apps controlled by a US "foreign adversary" — the same law that’s set to ban TikTok. Security experts have already raised concerns that RedNote could pass along US user data to the Chinese government and that many Americans won’t understand what they’re allowing when they agree to the app’s terms of service, which are only available in Mandarin.

Elettra Bietti, assistant professor of law and computer science at Northeastern University, noted, "This definition includes TikTok and any other social media and mobile application that is controlled by China or by shareholders connected to China." She added that it would be up to the president to issue a public notice that the platforms were subject to enforcement under the law. "To me, the proliferation of Chinese apps is showing the limits of an app-by-app designation under (the law), and also the US government’s limited ability to control how US citizens use the internet and on which forum they choose to express themselves," Bietti said.

Of course, there are non-Chinese alternatives as well. Clapper, a short-form video platform with a live audio conversation feature similar to X, reported gaining 1.4 million new users in the past week, including 400,000 on Wednesday alone. Flip, a shopping-focused short-form video app currently ranking No. 6 on the Apple App Store, posted an apology to users after rapid growth caused the app to be "either very slow or completely down for most users."

Jake Maughan, head of influencer marketing at advertising firm BENlabs, observed, "Audiences that live on TikTok, they’re not going to go to one single destination... I think they’re going to go to many different ones, depending on where their communities are and what type of content (they make)." This suggests a fragmented future for the displaced TikTok community, with users spreading across multiple platforms rather than consolidating on a single alternative.

Despite the newfound competition, mainstream platforms like Instagram and YouTube are still likely to benefit if TikTok goes away. Big tech companies have in recent years reoriented their businesses to better compete with TikTok, causing a broader shift in the social media ecosystem away from friend-based feeds to prioritizing entertainment and new content that keeps people scrolling longer. However, downloads of Snapchat and YouTube fell this week compared to the week prior, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. While Instagram downloads were up 2% week-on-week, the number of daily active users was essentially the same as the previous week.

Many users say that these apps are still missing the magic of TikTok. The frustrations range from small annoyances — for example, unlike on TikTok, you can’t pause an Instagram Reels video unless you hold your finger down on the screen — to more esoteric issues, like community. On TikTok, users say they can be more creative and less polished and they’ll be rewarded for that in the comments, whereas Instagram often has more negativity. And because each of the platforms favors slightly different content, success as an influencer on TikTok doesn’t guarantee success on the other apps.

Molinaro told that on TikTok, “I get to be a little bit freer, more myself. I get to kind of take the curation away from it, and I just get to talk freely with (my followers) and have fun with them.” Creator Stormi Steele echoed this sentiment, stating, "TikTok favors realism. I feel like the other platforms are almost a little bit more vain, whereas TikTok is all about showing up and being your authentic self and a lot of people can resonate with that." Steele also expressed concern about losing access to TikTok Shop, the app’s storefront feature that lets creators host live selling events. Her brand, Canvas Beauty, currently earns $2 million to $3.5 million each month on TikTok.

But ultimately, it’s the TikTok algorithm that sets the app apart, feeding users videos based on sometimes scarily-accurate predictions of what they’ll find entertaining, whether they follow those creators or not. Any alternative will have to replicate that algorithm in order to become a real TikTok replacement. "The algorithm that TikTok has created and refined is unmatched. And even YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels and whatnot, those algorithms feel antiquated compared to TikTok," Maughan said. "TikTok, it was novel. The idea that anybody can go viral, and you can shoot your shot, and you can go from zero to millions (of followers) overnight — you still don’t get that anywhere else."

In conclusion, as TikTok faces its impending ban, the quest for a replacement has highlighted both the challenges and opportunities in the short-form video space. While a plethora of apps are vying to fill the void, it remains to be seen whether any can truly capture the essence of TikTok. The unique combination of community, creativity, and algorithmic magic that has made TikTok a cultural juggernaut will be a tough act to follow. As the "TikTok refugees" navigate their way through the app store, one thing is clear: the legacy of TikTok will continue to shape the social media landscape for years to come.